Yunnan Yukun v Shanghai SIPG FC
Super League - China · Fri 17 Jul, 13:00 UK
Model probabilities
26% / 24% / 51%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.455 — 2.077
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Yunnan Yukun 20% · Shanghai SIPG FC 39% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yunnan Yukun | 25.8% | 2.75 | 2.60 | -5.4% |
| Draw | 23.6% | 4.17 | 4.00 | -4% |
| Shanghai SIPG FC | 50.6% | 2.53 | 2.55 | +1% |
Sharp reference (raw): 2.60 / 3.95 / 2.39 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Shanghai SIPG FC — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Shanghai SIPG FCFair line (devig) — Shanghai SIPG FC
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Yunnan Yukun
DLDWWL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.58 / 1.75
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 75% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 75% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | A v Wuhan Three Towns | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-24 | H v Qingdao West Coast | 2-3 | L |
| 2026-05-20 | A v Chongqing Tonglianglong | 0-0 | D |
| 2026-05-16 | H v Shanghai Shenhua | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-05-10 | A v Liaoning Tieren | 2-1 | W |
Shanghai SIPG FC
DLDDDD
Goals for/against (last 12): 0.92 / 0.92
Over 2.5 goals: 25% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 25%
Over 2.5 goals: 25% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 25%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-11-11 | A v Beijing Guoan | 1-1 | D |
| 2020-11-07 | H v Beijing Guoan | 1-2 | L |
| 2020-11-02 | H v Jiangsu Suning | 1-1 | D |
| 2020-10-29 | A v Jiangsu Suning | 1-1 | D |
| 2020-10-23 | H v Shanghai Shenhua | 1-1 | D |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.