AIK v GAIS
AS Sat 18 Jul, 14:00 UK · in 4d
Model probabilities
58% / 27% / 16%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.699 — 0.782
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-0
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): AIK 39% · GAIS 8% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AIK | 57.8% | 2.79 | 2.70 | -3.1% |
| Draw | 26.7% | 3.76 | 3.50 | -6.9% |
| GAIS | 15.5% | 2.67 | 2.64 | -1% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.85 · Under: 1.94 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.63 / 3.56 / 2.52 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · AIK — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — AIKFair line (devig) — AIK
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
AIK
LWDLDL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.25 / 1.5
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | H v Sirius | 0-3 | L |
| 2026-05-24 | A v Hammarby | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-17 | A v Vasteras SK | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-10 | H v Djurgarden | 2-4 | L |
| 2026-05-03 | A v Elfsborg | 1-1 | D |
GAIS
WWLWDW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.42 / 0.92
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 50%
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 50%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | H v IF Elfsborg | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-05-30 | H v Kalmar | 3-0 | W |
| 2026-05-24 | A v Sirius | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-05-20 | H v Hammarby | 2-0 | W |
| 2026-05-16 | H v Degerfors | 1-1 | D |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-28 | AIK v GAIS | 1-1 | Sweden Allsvenskan |
| 2025-03-31 | GAIS v AIK | 0-1 | Sweden Allsvenskan |
| 2024-07-29 | AIK v GAIS | 0-1 | Sweden Allsvenskan |
| 2024-07-22 | GAIS v AIK | 2-0 | Sweden Allsvenskan |
| 2012-08-26 | GAIS v AIK | 0-1 | Sweden Allsvenskan |
| 2012-05-24 | AIK v GAIS | 1-0 | Sweden Allsvenskan |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.