Viking FK v Sandefjord
Eliteserien - Norway · Sat 18 Jul, 19:00 UK
Model probabilities
65% / 20% / 15%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
2.416 — 1.086
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
2-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Viking FK 52% · Sandefjord 11% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viking FK | 65.3% | 1.37 | 1.30 | -5.1% |
| Draw | 20.2% | 6.41 | 6.00 | -6.4% |
| Sandefjord | 14.6% | 8.77 | 9.50 | +8.3% |
Sharp reference (raw): 1.30 / 6.07 / 8.35 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Viking FK — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Viking FKFair line (devig) — Viking FK
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Viking FK
LWWWWW
Goals for/against (last 12): 2.83 / 1
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 33%
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 33%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | A v Sarpsborg 08 FF | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-05-24 | A v Kristiansund | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-16 | H v Start | 6-3 | W |
| 2026-05-10 | A v KFUM Oslo | 2-0 | W |
| 2026-05-01 | H v Rosenborg | 3-0 | W |
Sandefjord
DLDLWW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1 / 1.25
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 33%
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 33%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | H v Ham-Kam | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-05-30 | A v Molde | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-05-25 | H v Fredrikstad | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-16 | A v Lillestrom | 1-3 | L |
| 2026-05-10 | H v Kristiansund | 2-0 | W |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-10 | Sandefjord v Viking | 1-2 | Norway Eliteserien |
| 2025-05-16 | Viking v Sandefjord | 3-1 | Norway Eliteserien |
| 2024-11-02 | Viking v Sandefjord | 3-2 | Norway Eliteserien |
| 2024-05-20 | Sandefjord v Viking | 0-3 | Norway Eliteserien |
| 2023-09-24 | Viking v Sandefjord | 4-3 | Norway Eliteserien |
| 2023-05-13 | Sandefjord v Viking | 1-2 | Norway Eliteserien |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.