Shanghai Shenhua FC v Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC
SLC Sat 18 Jul, 12:35 UK · in 4d
Model probabilities
56% / 25% / 18%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.861 — 0.985
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Shanghai Shenhua FC 40% · Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC 11% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shanghai Shenhua FC | 56.4% | 1.52 | 1.45 | -4.6% |
| Draw | 25.3% | 5.10 | 4.75 | -6.9% |
| Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC | 18.3% | 6.85 | 6.50 | -5.1% |
Sharp reference (raw): 1.43 / 4.80 / 6.46 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Shanghai Shenhua FC — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Shanghai Shenhua FCFair line (devig) — Shanghai Shenhua FC
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Shanghai Shenhua FC
DLDLDL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.83 / 1.58
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 25%
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 25%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | A v Qingdao West Coast | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-05-24 | H v Shenzhen Xinpengcheng | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-05-20 | H v Wuhan Three Towns | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-05-16 | A v Yunnan Yukun | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-05-09 | H v Chongqing Tonglianglong | 2-2 | D |
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC
WDLLDD
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.58 / 1.42
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 83% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 83% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | H v Dalian Yingbo | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-05-23 | A v Shanghai Port | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-19 | H v Henan Songshan Longmen | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-05-15 | H v Chengdu Rongcheng | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-05-10 | A v Zhejiang Professional | 1-1 | D |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Tianjin Jinmen Tiger v Shanghai Shenhua | 2-3 | China Super League |
| 2025-11-22 | Tianjin Jinmen Tiger v Shanghai Shenhua | 1-3 | China Super League |
| 2025-06-25 | Shanghai Shenhua v Tianjin Jinmen Tiger | 3-0 | China Super League |
| 2024-09-21 | Shanghai Shenhua v Tianjin Jinmen Tiger | 2-1 | China Super League |
| 2024-05-11 | Tianjin Jinmen Tiger v Shanghai Shenhua | 0-0 | China Super League |
| 2023-10-29 | Tianjin Jinmen Tiger v Shanghai Shenhua | 1-1 | China Super League |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.