Grimsby Town v Blackpool
EFL Cup · Sat 8 Aug, 15:00 UK
Model probabilities
47% / 28% / 25%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.566 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Grimsby Town 32% · Blackpool 15% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grimsby Town | 46.5% | 2.75 | 2.70 | -2% |
| Draw | 28.3% | 3.60 | 3.50 | -2.7% |
| Blackpool | 25.2% | 2.78 | 2.62 | -5.7% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.85 · Under: 1.91 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.59 / 3.38 / 2.61 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Grimsby Town — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Grimsby TownFair line (devig) — Grimsby Town
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Grimsby Town
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Blackpool
WLWDDD
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.33 / 2.42
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 75% · Clean sheets: 8%
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 75% · Clean sheets: 8%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | A v AFC Fylde | 3-2 | W |
| 2011-05-22 | A v Man United | 2-4 | L |
| 2011-05-14 | H v Bolton | 4-3 | W |
| 2011-05-07 | A v Tottenham | 1-1 | D |
| 2011-04-30 | H v Stoke | 0-0 | D |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.