Atlético Tucuman v Independiente Rivadavia
PDA Sun 26 Jul, 19:00 UK · in 13d
Model probabilities
43% / 32% / 25%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.31 — 0.945
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Atlético Tucuman 26% · Independiente Rivadavia 14% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Tucuman | 43.3% | 2.80 | 2.60 | -7.2% |
| Draw | 31.5% | 3.26 | 3.00 | -7.9% |
| Independiente Rivadavia | 25.2% | 2.98 | 2.87 | -3.6% |
Sharp reference (raw): 2.67 / 3.10 / 2.84 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Atlético Tucuman — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Atlético TucumanFair line (devig) — Atlético Tucuman
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Atlético Tucuman
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Independiente Rivadavia
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.