Platense v Union Santa Fe
Primera División - Argentina · Sat 25 Jul, 01:15 UK
Model probabilities
43% / 32% / 25%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.31 — 0.945
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Platense 26% · Union Santa Fe 13% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Platense | 43.3% | 3.01 | 2.80 | -7% |
| Draw | 31.5% | 2.87 | 2.90 | +1.2% |
| Union Santa Fe | 25.2% | 3.13 | 2.87 | -8.4% |
Sharp reference (raw): 2.87 / 2.73 / 2.99 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Platense — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — PlatenseFair line (devig) — Platense
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Platense
LLLDDL
Goals for/against (last 12): 0.5 / 1
Over 2.5 goals: 8% · Both teams scored: 25% · Clean sheets: 42%
Over 2.5 goals: 8% · Both teams scored: 25% · Clean sheets: 42%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | H v Estudiantes L.P. | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-04-25 | H v San Lorenzo | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-04-20 | A v Central Cordoba | 3-4 | L |
| 2026-04-12 | H v Gimnasia Mendoza | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-04-02 | A v Lanus | 0-0 | D |
Union Santa Fe
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.