Norrby IF v GIF Sundsvall
SS Mon 20 Jul, 18:00 UK · in 6d
Model probabilities
41% / 36% / 23%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.04 — 0.714
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
0-0
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Norrby IF 20% · GIF Sundsvall 9% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norrby IF | 40.9% | 2.06 | 1.98 | -4% |
| Draw | 36.1% | 3.72 | 3.60 | -3.2% |
| GIF Sundsvall | 23.0% | 4.07 | 4.00 | -1.6% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.85 · Under: 1.85 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.94 / 3.50 / 3.82 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Norrby IF — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Norrby IFFair line (devig) — Norrby IF
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Norrby IF
L
Goals for/against (last 12): 2 / 4
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | A v Varbergs BoIS FC | 2-4 | L |
GIF Sundsvall
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.