Chapecoense v Flamengo
Brazil Série A · Thu 23 Jul, 01:30 UK
Model probabilities
49% / 29% / 22%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.546 — 0.978
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Chapecoense 32% · Flamengo 13% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chapecoense | 48.9% | 6.85 | 7.50 | +9.5% |
| Draw | 28.7% | 4.55 | 4.40 | -3.2% |
| Flamengo | 22.4% | 1.58 | 1.50 | -4.9% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.77 · Under: 2.00 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 6.52 / 4.32 / 1.50 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Chapecoense — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — ChapecoenseFair line (devig) — Chapecoense
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Chapecoense
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Flamengo
W
Goals for/against (last 12): 2 / 1
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | A v Benfica | 2-1 | W |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.