Necaxa v Atlante FC
Liga MX · Fri 17 Jul, 02:00 UK
Model probabilities
61% / 23% / 16%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
2.151 — 1.041
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Necaxa 47% · Atlante FC 11% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Necaxa | 61.3% | 1.98 | 1.93 | -2.5% |
| Draw | 22.5% | 3.95 | 3.80 | -3.9% |
| Atlante FC | 16.2% | 4.13 | 3.90 | -5.6% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.75 · Under: 2.14 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.88 / 3.76 / 3.93 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Necaxa — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — NecaxaFair line (devig) — Necaxa
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Necaxa
LDDLWW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1 / 1.5
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 25%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 25%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | A v Cruz Azul | 1-4 | L |
| 2026-04-23 | H v Guadalajara Chivas | 0-0 | D |
| 2026-04-19 | H v Tigres UANL | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-04-12 | A v Queretaro | 1-3 | L |
| 2026-04-04 | H v Mazatlan FC | 2-1 | W |
Atlante FC
LLLLLW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.5 / 2.42
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-04-27 | A v Chiapas | 2-5 | L |
| 2014-04-20 | H v Club Tijuana | 1-2 | L |
| 2014-04-14 | A v Santos Laguna | 3-4 | L |
| 2014-04-06 | H v Tigres UANL | 0-2 | L |
| 2014-03-30 | A v Monterrey | 2-3 | L |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.