FC Juárez v Puebla
Liga MX · Sat 18 Jul, 04:00 UK
Model probabilities
45% / 28% / 26%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.57 — 1.153
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): FC Juárez 30% · Puebla 17% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Juárez | 45.4% | 1.74 | 1.72 | -1.1% |
| Draw | 28.2% | 4.31 | 4.00 | -7.2% |
| Puebla | 26.4% | 5.18 | 5.00 | -3.5% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.68 · Under: 2.10 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.65 / 4.08 / 4.91 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · FC Juárez — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — FC JuárezFair line (devig) — FC Juárez
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
FC Juárez
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Puebla
LLLLDL
Goals for/against (last 12): 0.92 / 1.92
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | H v Queretaro | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-04-22 | A v Monterrey | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-04-19 | A v Guadalajara Chivas | 0-5 | L |
| 2026-04-11 | H v Club Leon | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-04-04 | H v Juarez | 1-1 | D |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.