Club Bolívar v Grêmio
CS Thu 23 Jul, 23:00 UK · in 10d
Model probabilities
47% / 28% / 25%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.566 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Club Bolívar 31% · Grêmio 15% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Bolívar | 46.5% | 1.76 | 1.68 | -4.6% |
| Draw | 28.3% | 4.29 | 4.00 | -6.8% |
| Grêmio | 25.2% | 5.03 | 4.70 | -6.5% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.73 · Under: 2.12 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.64 / 4.00 / 4.68 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Club Bolívar — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Club BolívarFair line (devig) — Club Bolívar
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Club Bolívar
LLDWDL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.5 / 1.58
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 25%
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 25%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | H v CS Independiente Rivadavia | 1-3 | L |
| 2026-05-19 | A v Fluminense FC | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-05-06 | A v Deportivo La Guaira FC | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-04-30 | H v Fluminense FC | 2-0 | W |
| 2026-04-15 | H v Deportivo La Guaira FC | 1-1 | D |
Grêmio
LWDLDW
Goals for/against (last 12): 0.83 / 1.08
Over 2.5 goals: 33% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 42%
Over 2.5 goals: 33% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 42%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | H v Corinthians | 1-3 | L |
| 2026-05-23 | H v Santos | 3-2 | W |
| 2026-05-17 | A v Bahia | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-10 | H v Flamengo RJ | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-05-03 | A v Athletico-PR | 0-0 | D |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.