Kristiansund BK v Sarpsborg FK
EN Sat 18 Jul, 15:00 UK · in 4d
Model probabilities
48% / 26% / 26%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.793 — 1.267
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Kristiansund BK 35% · Sarpsborg FK 17% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kristiansund BK | 48.3% | 3.33 | 3.00 | -10% |
| Draw | 26.0% | 3.79 | 3.70 | -2.3% |
| Sarpsborg FK | 25.7% | 2.29 | 2.25 | -1.9% |
Sharp reference (raw): 3.18 / 3.61 / 2.19 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Kristiansund BK — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Kristiansund BKFair line (devig) — Kristiansund BK
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Kristiansund BK
LLLWLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 0.92 / 1.75
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 8%
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 8%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | A v Rosenborg | 0-3 | L |
| 2026-05-29 | A v Valerenga | 1-3 | L |
| 2026-05-24 | H v Viking | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-05-20 | A v Lillestrom | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-16 | A v Molde | 0-1 | L |
Sarpsborg FK
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.