Aberdeen v Hearts
Premiership - Scotland · Sat 1 Aug, 17:30 UK
Model probabilities
45% / 29% / 26%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Aberdeen 30% · Hearts 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen | 45.0% | 4.31 | 4.00 | -7.2% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 4.00 | 3.75 | -6.2% |
| Hearts | 26.1% | 1.93 | 1.94 | +0.7% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.70 · Under: 2.06 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 4.10 / 3.80 / 1.83 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Aberdeen — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — AberdeenFair line (devig) — Aberdeen
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Aberdeen
W
Goals for/against (last 12): 2 / 0
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 100%
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 100%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | A v Linfield | 2-0 | W |
Hearts
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.