Lanus v San Lorenzo
Primera División - Argentina · Sun 26 Jul, 01:30 UK
Model probabilities
42% / 32% / 26%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.254 — 0.946
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Lanus 24% · San Lorenzo 14% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lanus | 41.6% | 2.05 | 1.95 | -5% |
| Draw | 32.1% | 2.96 | 2.95 | -0.3% |
| San Lorenzo | 26.2% | 5.71 | 5.00 | -12.5% |
Sharp reference (raw): 1.95 / 2.81 / 5.42 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Lanus — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — LanusFair line (devig) — Lanus
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Lanus
LDDLWD
Goals for/against (last 12): 0.75 / 0.92
Over 2.5 goals: 25% · Both teams scored: 17% · Clean sheets: 50%
Over 2.5 goals: 25% · Both teams scored: 17% · Clean sheets: 50%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | A v Argentinos Jrs | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-05-02 | H v Dep. Riestra | 0-0 | D |
| 2026-04-24 | H v Central Cordoba | 0-0 | D |
| 2026-04-21 | A v Gimnasia Mendoza | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-04-13 | H v Banfield | 1-0 | W |
San Lorenzo
DLWDDW
Goals for/against (last 12): 0.92 / 0.92
Over 2.5 goals: 17% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 50%
Over 2.5 goals: 17% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 50%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | A v River Plate | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-02 | H v Independiente | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-04-25 | A v Platense | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-04-20 | H v Velez Sarsfield | 0-0 | D |
| 2026-04-12 | A v Newells Old Boys | 0-0 | D |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | San Lorenzo v Lanus | 2-3 | Argentina Liga Profesional |
| 2025-10-05 | Lanus v San Lorenzo | 2-1 | Argentina Liga Profesional |
| 2025-03-28 | San Lorenzo v Lanus | 1-1 | Argentina Liga Profesional |
| 2024-05-20 | San Lorenzo v Lanus | 1-1 | Argentina Liga Profesional |
| 2024-01-27 | San Lorenzo v Lanus | 0-2 | Argentina Copa De La Liga Profesional |
| 2023-08-20 | Lanus v San Lorenzo | 0-1 | Argentina Copa De La Liga Profesional |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.