FC Anyang v Gwangju FC
KL1 Sun 19 Jul, 11:30 UK · in 5d
Model probabilities
45% / 29% / 26%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): FC Anyang 30% · Gwangju FC 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Anyang | 45.0% | 1.71 | 1.62 | -5.2% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 3.97 | 3.75 | -5.5% |
| Gwangju FC | 26.1% | 6.13 | 5.60 | -8.7% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 2.10 · Under: 1.67 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.62 / 3.76 / 5.80 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · FC Anyang — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — FC AnyangFair line (devig) — FC Anyang
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
FC Anyang
W
Goals for/against (last 12): 1 / 0
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 100%
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 100%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | A v Incheon United | 1-0 | W |
Gwangju FC
L
Goals for/against (last 12): 0 / 3
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | H v Pohang Steelers | 0-3 | L |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.