Clube de Regatas Brasil v Nautico PE
Brazil Série B · Fri 17 Jul, 00:00 UK
Model probabilities
68% / 25% / 7%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.664 — 0.4
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-0
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Clube de Regatas Brasil 43% · Nautico PE 2% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clube de Regatas Brasil | 67.8% | 2.12 | 1.96 | -7.7% |
| Draw | 24.9% | 3.28 | 3.55 | +8.3% |
| Nautico PE | 7.3% | 4.48 | 4.10 | -8.6% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.92 · Under: 1.94 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.01 / 3.10 / 4.24 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Clube de Regatas Brasil — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Clube de Regatas BrasilFair line (devig) — Clube de Regatas Brasil
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Clube de Regatas Brasil
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Nautico PE
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.