FC Luzern v FC Thun
SS Sat 25 Jul, 19:30 UK · in 11d
Model probabilities
45% / 29% / 26%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): FC Luzern 29% · FC Thun 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Luzern | 45.0% | 2.42 | 2.25 | -6.8% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 4.03 | 3.90 | -3.3% |
| FC Thun | 26.1% | 2.96 | 2.62 | -11.4% |
Sharp reference (raw): 2.30 / 3.84 / 2.82 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · FC Luzern — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — FC LuzernFair line (devig) — FC Luzern
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
FC Luzern
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
FC Thun
LD
Goals for/against (last 12): 1 / 1.5
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | H v Waldhof Mannheim | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-07-11 | H v SV Elversberg | 1-1 | D |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.