Colorado Rapids v San Diego FC
MLS · Thu 23 Jul, 02:30 UK
Model probabilities
33% / 27% / 41%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.472 — 1.656
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · consensus)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Colorado Rapids 24% · San Diego FC 30% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rapids | 32.8% | 2.23 | 2.10 | -5.7% |
| Draw | 26.5% | 4.24 | 4.00 | -5.6% |
| San Diego FC | 40.7% | 3.17 | 3.00 | -5.5% |
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · San Diego FC — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — San Diego FCFair line (devig) — San Diego FC
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Colorado Rapids
LLWLLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.58 / 1.75
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | H v FC Dallas | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-05-17 | A v Real Salt Lake | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-05-14 | A v Minnesota United | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-05-10 | H v St. Louis City | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-05-03 | A v Houston Dynamo | 0-1 | L |
San Diego FC
LDWDDL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.83 / 2.25
Over 2.5 goals: 83% · Both teams scored: 75% · Clean sheets: 8%
Over 2.5 goals: 83% · Both teams scored: 75% · Clean sheets: 8%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | H v Vancouver Whitecaps | 2-4 | L |
| 2026-05-17 | H v FC Cincinnati | 3-3 | D |
| 2026-05-14 | H v Austin FC | 5-0 | W |
| 2026-05-10 | A v Seattle Sounders | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-03 | H v Los Angeles FC | 2-2 | D |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-15 | San Diego FC v Colorado Rapids | 2-0 | USA MLS |
| 2025-04-13 | Colorado Rapids v San Diego FC | 3-2 | USA MLS |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.