Lillestrom v KFUM
EN Sat 18 Jul, 15:00 UK · in 4d
Model probabilities
48% / 26% / 26%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.793 — 1.267
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Lillestrom 35% · KFUM 18% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lillestrom | 48.3% | 1.80 | 1.74 | -3.4% |
| Draw | 26.0% | 4.22 | 3.80 | -9.9% |
| KFUM | 25.7% | 4.83 | 4.50 | -6.8% |
Sharp reference (raw): 1.71 / 4.00 / 4.58 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Lillestrom — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — LillestromFair line (devig) — Lillestrom
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Lillestrom
WLLWLW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.58 / 0.92
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 33% · Clean sheets: 42%
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 33% · Clean sheets: 42%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | A v Fredrikstad | 2-0 | W |
| 2026-05-25 | A v HamKam | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-05-20 | H v Kristiansund | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-05-16 | H v Sandefjord | 3-1 | W |
| 2026-05-10 | A v Rosenborg | 0-2 | L |
KFUM
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.