Deportivo Riestra v Boca Juniors
PDA Sun 26 Jul, 23:30 UK · in 13d
Model probabilities
43% / 32% / 25%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.31 — 0.945
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Deportivo Riestra 25% · Boca Juniors 13% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Riestra | 43.3% | 4.63 | 4.20 | -9.3% |
| Draw | 31.5% | 3.15 | 2.90 | -8.1% |
| Boca Juniors | 25.2% | 2.14 | 2.05 | -4.3% |
Sharp reference (raw): 4.41 / 3.00 / 2.04 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Deportivo Riestra — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Deportivo RiestraFair line (devig) — Deportivo Riestra
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Deportivo Riestra
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Boca Juniors
DWWWDW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.5 / 0.5
Over 2.5 goals: 25% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 50%
Over 2.5 goals: 25% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 50%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | H v Huracan | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-02 | A v Central Cordoba | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-04-24 | A v Defensa y Justicia | 4-0 | W |
| 2026-04-19 | A v River Plate | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-04-11 | H v Independiente | 1-1 | D |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.