Guadalajara v Toluca
Liga MX · Sun 19 Jul, 02:07 UK
Model probabilities
45% / 28% / 26%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.57 — 1.153
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Guadalajara 30% · Toluca 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guadalajara | 45.4% | 2.34 | 2.25 | -3.9% |
| Draw | 28.2% | 3.69 | 3.60 | -2.4% |
| Toluca | 26.4% | 3.32 | 3.00 | -9.7% |
Sharp reference (raw): 2.23 / 3.51 / 3.16 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Guadalajara — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — GuadalajaraFair line (devig) — Guadalajara
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Guadalajara
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Toluca
LLWLLD
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.58 / 1.42
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 8%
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 8%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | A v Pachuca | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-05-04 | H v Pachuca | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-04-26 | H v Club Leon | 4-1 | W |
| 2026-04-23 | A v Mazatlan FC | 3-4 | L |
| 2026-04-19 | A v Club America | 1-2 | L |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.