Molde v SK Brann
EN Sat 18 Jul, 17:00 UK · in 4d
Model probabilities
48% / 26% / 26%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.793 — 1.267
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Molde 35% · SK Brann 18% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Molde | 48.3% | 2.20 | 2.08 | -5.6% |
| Draw | 26.0% | 4.00 | 3.90 | -2.5% |
| SK Brann | 25.7% | 3.38 | 3.20 | -5.3% |
Sharp reference (raw): 2.10 / 3.82 / 3.22 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Molde — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — MoldeFair line (devig) — Molde
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Molde
DWLWLW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.67 / 1.25
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 25%
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 25%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | A v Aalesund | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-05-30 | H v Sandefjord | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-25 | A v Sarpsborg 08 | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-05-16 | H v Kristiansund | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-05-10 | A v Tromso | 0-2 | L |
SK Brann
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.