Necaxa v Monterrey
Liga MX · Mon 27 Jul, 00:00 UK
Model probabilities
34% / 29% / 37%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.338 — 1.401
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · consensus)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Necaxa 22% · Monterrey 24% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Necaxa | 34.2% | 2.83 | 2.60 | -8.2% |
| Draw | 28.8% | 3.82 | 3.50 | -8.3% |
| Monterrey | 37.0% | 2.60 | 2.38 | -8.4% |
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · Monterrey — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — MonterreyFair line (devig) — Monterrey
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Necaxa
LDDLWW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1 / 1.5
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 25%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 25%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | A v Cruz Azul | 1-4 | L |
| 2026-04-23 | H v Guadalajara Chivas | 0-0 | D |
| 2026-04-19 | H v Tigres UANL | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-04-12 | A v Queretaro | 1-3 | L |
| 2026-04-04 | H v Mazatlan FC | 2-1 | W |
Monterrey
LWLDLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.08 / 1.58
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 25%
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 25%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | A v Santos Laguna | 0-3 | L |
| 2026-04-22 | H v Puebla | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-04-19 | H v Pachuca | 1-3 | L |
| 2026-04-12 | A v Atlas | 0-0 | D |
| 2026-04-05 | H v Atl. San Luis | 1-2 | L |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-14 | Necaxa v Monterrey | 0-2 | Mexico Liga MX |
| 2025-08-24 | Monterrey v Necaxa | 3-0 | Mexico Liga MX |
| 2025-02-02 | Monterrey v Necaxa | 1-0 | Mexico Liga MX |
| 2024-07-18 | Necaxa v Monterrey | 0-1 | Mexico Liga MX |
| 2024-04-29 | Necaxa v Monterrey | 2-5 | Mexico Liga MX |
| 2023-11-01 | Monterrey v Necaxa | 3-0 | Mexico Liga MX |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.