Wuhan Three Towns v Shenzhen Peng City FC
SLC Sat 18 Jul, 13:00 UK · in 4d
Model probabilities
46% / 27% / 27%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.7 — 1.278
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Wuhan Three Towns 32% · Shenzhen Peng City FC 19% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wuhan Three Towns | 45.8% | 2.22 | 2.10 | -5.3% |
| Draw | 26.8% | 3.77 | 3.60 | -4.6% |
| Shenzhen Peng City FC | 27.4% | 3.52 | 3.30 | -6.3% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.74 · Under: 2.05 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.10 / 3.57 / 3.34 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Wuhan Three Towns — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Wuhan Three TownsFair line (devig) — Wuhan Three Towns
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Wuhan Three Towns
DDDDDL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.42 / 2.17
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 75% · Clean sheets: 8%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 75% · Clean sheets: 8%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | H v Yunnan Yukun | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-24 | A v Shandong Taishan | 3-3 | D |
| 2026-05-20 | A v Shanghai Shenhua | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-05-16 | H v Liaoning Tieren | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-05-10 | A v Qingdao West Coast | 1-1 | D |
Shenzhen Peng City FC
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.