Botafogo v Vitoria
Brazil Série A · Thu 23 Jul, 23:30 UK
Model probabilities
47% / 29% / 23%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.494 — 0.983
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · consensus)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Botafogo 31% · Vitoria 13% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo | 47.4% | 1.85 | 1.75 | -5.5% |
| Draw | 29.3% | 3.97 | 3.75 | -5.5% |
| Vitoria | 23.3% | 4.81 | 4.55 | -5.4% |
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · Botafogo — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — BotafogoFair line (devig) — Botafogo
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Botafogo
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Vitoria
LWLLLD
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.17 / 1.58
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 33%
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 33%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | A v Santos | 1-3 | L |
| 2026-05-23 | H v Internacional | 2-0 | W |
| 2026-05-17 | A v Bragantino | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-05-16 | A v CD Nacional | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-05-11 | H v Casa Pia AC | 0-1 | L |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.