Henan FC v Qingdao Hainiu FC
SLC Fri 17 Jul, 12:35 UK · in 3d
Model probabilities
46% / 27% / 27%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.7 — 1.278
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · consensus)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Henan FC 32% · Qingdao Hainiu FC 18% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henan FC | 45.8% | 1.69 | 1.62 | -3.9% |
| Draw | 26.8% | 4.37 | 4.20 | -3.8% |
| Qingdao Hainiu FC | 27.4% | 5.62 | 5.40 | -3.9% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.64 · Under: 2.20 — best captured prices.
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · Henan FC — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Henan FCFair line (devig) — Henan FC
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Henan FC
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Qingdao Hainiu FC
LLLLWW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.67 / 1.42
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | A v Shenzhen Xinpengcheng | 2-3 | L |
| 2026-05-24 | H v Chongqing Tonglianglong | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-05-20 | A v Liaoning Tieren | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-05-15 | A v Beijing Guoan | 2-4 | L |
| 2026-05-10 | H v Dalian Yingbo | 3-1 | W |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.