IFK Goteborg v IF Brommapojkarna
AS Fri 17 Jul, 18:00 UK · in 3d
Model probabilities
45% / 28% / 28%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.627 — 1.24
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): IFK Goteborg 31% · IF Brommapojkarna 18% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IFK Goteborg | 44.9% | 1.95 | 1.93 | -1.2% |
| Draw | 27.5% | 4.08 | 3.90 | -4.4% |
| IF Brommapojkarna | 27.7% | 4.12 | 3.90 | -5.2% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.62 · Under: 2.15 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.84 / 3.85 / 3.88 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · IFK Goteborg — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — IFK GoteborgFair line (devig) — IFK Goteborg
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
IFK Goteborg
L
Goals for/against (last 12): 0 / 4
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | A v Malmo FF | 0-4 | L |
IF Brommapojkarna
L
Goals for/against (last 12): 1 / 2
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | H v Sirius | 1-2 | L |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.