América Mineiro v Ceará
BSB Fri 17 Jul, 23:00 UK · in 4d
Model probabilities
68% / 25% / 7%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.664 — 0.4
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-0
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): América Mineiro 43% · Ceará 2% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| América Mineiro | 67.8% | 2.75 | 2.60 | -5.6% |
| Draw | 24.9% | 3.34 | 3.15 | -5.8% |
| Ceará | 7.3% | 2.97 | 2.75 | -7.3% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 2.25 · Under: 1.61 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.61 / 3.17 / 2.81 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · América Mineiro — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — América MineiroFair line (devig) — América Mineiro
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
América Mineiro
D
Goals for/against (last 12): 1 / 1
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | H v Londrina | 1-1 | D |
Ceará
DLLLLD
Goals for/against (last 12): 0.67 / 1.42
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 25%
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 25%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | H v Athletic Club | 0-0 | D |
| 2025-12-07 | H v SE Palmeiras | 1-3 | L |
| 2025-12-07 | H v Palmeiras | 1-3 | L |
| 2025-12-04 | A v CR Flamengo | 0-1 | L |
| 2025-12-04 | A v Flamengo RJ | 0-1 | L |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.