Kalmar FF v Malmo FF
AS Mon 20 Jul, 18:00 UK · in 6d
Model probabilities
45% / 28% / 28%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.627 — 1.24
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Kalmar FF 31% · Malmo FF 18% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalmar FF | 44.9% | 2.67 | 2.65 | -0.6% |
| Draw | 27.5% | 3.88 | 3.70 | -4.5% |
| Malmo FF | 27.7% | 2.72 | 2.60 | -4.6% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.67 · Under: 2.15 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.52 / 3.66 / 2.57 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Kalmar FF — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Kalmar FFFair line (devig) — Kalmar FF
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Kalmar FF
L
Goals for/against (last 12): 0 / 2
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | A v Hammarby FF | 0-2 | L |
Malmo FF
WWLLLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 2.17 / 1.75
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 75% · Clean sheets: 25%
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 75% · Clean sheets: 25%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | H v IFK Goteborg | 4-0 | W |
| 2026-05-30 | H v Halmstad | 5-2 | W |
| 2026-05-24 | H v Vasteras SK | 2-3 | L |
| 2026-05-17 | A v Hammarby | 1-4 | L |
| 2026-05-10 | A v Hacken | 2-3 | L |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.