Sao Paulo v Atletico Paranaense
Brazil Série A · Thu 23 Jul, 01:30 UK
Model probabilities
49% / 29% / 22%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.546 — 0.978
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Sao Paulo 32% · Atletico Paranaense 13% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sao Paulo | 48.9% | 2.11 | 2.05 | -3% |
| Draw | 28.7% | 3.38 | 3.40 | +0.6% |
| Atletico Paranaense | 22.4% | 4.35 | 4.10 | -5.7% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 2.14 · Under: 1.68 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.01 / 3.21 / 4.13 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Sao Paulo — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Sao PauloFair line (devig) — Sao Paulo
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Sao Paulo
LLDDLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.17 / 1.67
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 75% · Clean sheets: 8%
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 75% · Clean sheets: 8%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-01 | A v Remo | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-05-31 | A v Clube do Remo | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-05-23 | H v Botafogo FR | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-23 | H v Botafogo RJ | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-16 | A v Fluminense FC | 1-2 | L |
Atletico Paranaense
L
Goals for/against (last 12): 1 / 2
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | A v RB Bragantino | 1-2 | L |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.