Juventude v Cuiabá
BSB Fri 17 Jul, 23:00 UK · in 4d
Model probabilities
68% / 25% / 7%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.664 — 0.4
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-0
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Juventude 43% · Cuiabá 3% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventude | 67.8% | 2.12 | 2.00 | -5.8% |
| Draw | 24.9% | 3.13 | 3.05 | -2.4% |
| Cuiabá | 7.3% | 4.78 | 4.40 | -8% |
Sharp reference (raw): 2.01 / 2.96 / 4.52 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Juventude — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — JuventudeFair line (devig) — Juventude
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Juventude
DLDLDW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.17 / 1.75
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | A v Corinthians | 1-1 | D |
| 2025-12-03 | H v Santos | 0-3 | L |
| 2025-11-28 | H v Bahia | 1-1 | D |
| 2025-11-23 | A v Sao Paulo | 1-2 | L |
| 2025-11-20 | H v Cruzeiro | 3-3 | D |
Cuiabá
DLLLDL
Goals for/against (last 12): 0.67 / 1
Over 2.5 goals: 33% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 33%
Over 2.5 goals: 33% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 33%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | A v São Bernardo | 2-2 | D |
| 2024-12-08 | H v Vasco | 1-2 | L |
| 2024-12-05 | A v Fluminense | 0-1 | L |
| 2024-11-30 | H v Bahia | 1-2 | L |
| 2024-11-23 | A v Juventude | 1-1 | D |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-23 | Juventude v Cuiaba | 1-1 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2024-09-06 | Cuiaba v Juventude | 0-0 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2022-08-14 | Cuiaba v Juventude | 1-0 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2022-04-24 | Juventude v Cuiaba | 0-1 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2021-09-11 | Juventude v Cuiaba | 1-2 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2021-05-29 | Cuiaba v Juventude | 2-2 | Brazil Serie A |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.