Gimnasia Mendoza v Central Córdoba
Primera División - Argentina · Fri 24 Jul, 20:45 UK
Model probabilities
36% / 32% / 32%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.181 — 1.104
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Gimnasia Mendoza 21% · Central Córdoba 18% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gimnasia Mendoza | 35.9% | 2.06 | 2.00 | -3% |
| Draw | 31.9% | 3.30 | 3.00 | -9.1% |
| Central Córdoba | 32.1% | 4.72 | 4.50 | -4.6% |
Sharp reference (raw): 1.96 / 3.14 / 4.49 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Gimnasia Mendoza — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Gimnasia MendozaFair line (devig) — Gimnasia Mendoza
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Gimnasia Mendoza
WLWDWL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1 / 1.42
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 | H v Defensa y Justicia | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-04-26 | A v Ind. Rivadavia | 1-5 | L |
| 2026-04-21 | H v Lanus | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-04-12 | A v Platense | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-04-03 | H v Velez Sarsfield | 3-2 | W |
Central Córdoba
LLDWLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 0.83 / 1.5
Over 2.5 goals: 33% · Both teams scored: 33% · Clean sheets: 33%
Over 2.5 goals: 33% · Both teams scored: 33% · Clean sheets: 33%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | H v Atletico Atlas | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-05-02 | H v Boca Juniors | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-04-24 | A v Lanus | 0-0 | D |
| 2026-04-20 | H v Platense | 4-3 | W |
| 2026-04-14 | A v Velez Sarsfield | 0-1 | L |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | Central Cordoba v Gimnasia Mendoza | 0-1 | Argentina Liga Profesional |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.