Pachuca v Querétaro
Liga MX · Mon 27 Jul, 02:00 UK
Model probabilities
58% / 25% / 17%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.864 — 0.905
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · consensus)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Pachuca 42% · Querétaro 10% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pachuca | 58.4% | 1.70 | 1.55 | -8.7% |
| Draw | 25.1% | 4.39 | 4.00 | -8.8% |
| Querétaro | 16.5% | 5.46 | 5.00 | -8.5% |
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · Pachuca — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — PachucaFair line (devig) — Pachuca
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Pachuca
LWWWLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.5 / 1.08
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 25%
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 25%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | A v UNAM Pumas | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-05-15 | H v UNAM Pumas | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-05-11 | H v Toluca | 2-0 | W |
| 2026-05-04 | A v Toluca | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-04-26 | H v UNAM Pumas | 0-2 | L |
Querétaro
WDDWDW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1 / 1.33
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 25%
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 25%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | A v Puebla | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-04-22 | H v Cruz Azul | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-04-18 | A v Mazatlan FC | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-04-12 | H v Necaxa | 3-1 | W |
| 2026-04-08 | H v Juarez | 1-1 | D |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-01 | Queretaro v Pachuca | 0-0 | Mexico Liga MX |
| 2025-09-21 | Pachuca v Queretaro | 0-2 | Mexico Liga MX |
| 2025-01-30 | Queretaro v Pachuca | 0-1 | Mexico Liga MX |
| 2024-09-01 | Pachuca v Queretaro | 1-1 | Mexico Liga MX |
| 2024-03-10 | Pachuca v Queretaro | 1-2 | Mexico Liga MX |
| 2023-08-21 | Queretaro v Pachuca | 1-1 | Mexico Liga MX |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.