Nordic United FC v Örebro SK
SS Sun 19 Jul, 14:00 UK · in 5d
Model probabilities
41% / 36% / 23%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.04 — 0.714
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
0-0
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Nordic United FC 20% · Örebro SK 10% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nordic United FC | 40.9% | 1.92 | 1.86 | -3.3% |
| Draw | 36.1% | 4.29 | 3.80 | -11.5% |
| Örebro SK | 23.0% | 4.07 | 4.00 | -1.6% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.67 · Under: 2.12 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.80 / 4.01 / 3.80 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Nordic United FC — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Nordic United FCFair line (devig) — Nordic United FC
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Nordic United FC
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Örebro SK
WLDLLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.25 / 1.92
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | A v Ostersunds FK | 4-2 | W |
| 2021-12-04 | H v Elfsborg | 2-3 | L |
| 2021-11-29 | A v Mjallby | 0-0 | D |
| 2021-11-22 | H v Kalmar | 1-2 | L |
| 2021-11-07 | A v Hammarby | 2-3 | L |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.