Fluminense v Bragantino-SP
Brazil Série A · Sat 18 Jul, 00:00 UK
Model probabilities
49% / 29% / 22%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.546 — 0.978
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Fluminense 31% · Bragantino-SP 13% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fluminense | 48.9% | 2.05 | 2.00 | -2.4% |
| Draw | 28.7% | 3.48 | 3.40 | -2.4% |
| Bragantino-SP | 22.4% | 4.44 | 4.40 | -1% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 2.07 · Under: 1.75 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.95 / 3.32 / 4.22 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Fluminense — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — FluminenseFair line (devig) — Fluminense
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Fluminense
WDWLLW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.42 / 1.17
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 8%
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 8%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | H v Bahia | 2-0 | W |
| 2026-06-01 | A v Cruzeiro | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-28 | H v Deportivo La Guaira FC | 3-1 | W |
| 2026-05-23 | A v Mirassol FC | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-05-23 | A v Mirassol | 0-1 | L |
Bragantino-SP
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.