Atlético San Luis v Cruz Azul
Liga MX · Sat 18 Jul, 02:00 UK
Model probabilities
45% / 28% / 26%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.57 — 1.153
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Atlético San Luis 30% · Cruz Azul 17% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético San Luis | 45.4% | 4.18 | 4.10 | -2% |
| Draw | 28.2% | 3.92 | 3.75 | -4.4% |
| Cruz Azul | 26.4% | 1.98 | 1.89 | -4.4% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.70 · Under: 2.07 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 3.98 / 3.73 / 1.88 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Atlético San Luis — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Atlético San LuisFair line (devig) — Atlético San Luis
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Atlético San Luis
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Cruz Azul
WDWDWW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.58 / 1.08
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 83% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 83% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | A v UNAM Pumas | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-22 | H v UNAM Pumas | 0-0 | D |
| 2026-05-17 | A v Guadalajara Chivas | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-14 | H v Guadalajara Chivas | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-05-10 | H v Atlas | 1-0 | W |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.