1. FC Heidenheim v VfL Osnabrück
BUN Sat 8 Aug, 12:00 UK · in 25d
Model probabilities
45% / 29% / 26%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · consensus)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): 1. FC Heidenheim 29% · VfL Osnabrück 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Heidenheim | 45.0% | 1.61 | 1.50 | -6.7% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 4.50 | 4.20 | -6.8% |
| VfL Osnabrück | 26.1% | 6.41 | 6.00 | -6.4% |
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · 1. FC Heidenheim — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — 1. FC HeidenheimFair line (devig) — 1. FC Heidenheim
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
1. FC Heidenheim
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
VfL Osnabrück
L
Goals for/against (last 12): 0 / 1
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | A v FK Jablonec | 0-1 | L |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.