Wycombe Wanderers v Stevenage
EFL Cup · Fri 7 Aug, 19:45 UK
Model probabilities
45% / 29% / 26%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Wycombe Wanderers 30% · Stevenage 15% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wycombe Wanderers | 45.0% | 2.30 | 2.20 | -4.5% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 3.62 | 3.40 | -6.2% |
| Stevenage | 26.1% | 3.45 | 3.40 | -1.4% |
Sharp reference (raw): 2.16 / 3.40 / 3.24 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Wycombe Wanderers — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Wycombe WanderersFair line (devig) — Wycombe Wanderers
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Wycombe Wanderers
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Stevenage
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.