Karlsruher SC v Arminia Bielefeld
BUN Sat 8 Aug, 12:00 UK · in 25d
Model probabilities
45% / 29% / 26%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · consensus)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Karlsruher SC 30% · Arminia Bielefeld 15% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karlsruher SC | 45.0% | 2.54 | 2.38 | -6.2% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 3.79 | 3.55 | -6.3% |
| Arminia Bielefeld | 26.1% | 2.93 | 2.75 | -6.2% |
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · Karlsruher SC — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Karlsruher SCFair line (devig) — Karlsruher SC
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Karlsruher SC
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Arminia Bielefeld
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.