Atlético Huracán v Banfield
Primera División - Argentina · Sat 25 Jul, 01:15 UK
Model probabilities
43% / 32% / 25%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.31 — 0.945
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Atlético Huracán 26% · Banfield 13% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Huracán | 43.3% | 2.00 | 1.91 | -4.5% |
| Draw | 31.5% | 3.21 | 3.05 | -4.8% |
| Banfield | 25.2% | 5.32 | 4.80 | -9.8% |
Sharp reference (raw): 1.90 / 3.04 / 5.05 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Atlético Huracán — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Atlético HuracánFair line (devig) — Atlético Huracán
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Atlético Huracán
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Banfield
WDDLLW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.17 / 1.25
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 33%
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 33%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | A v Barracas Central | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-04-27 | A v Atl. Tucuman | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-04-20 | H v Ind. Rivadavia | 0-0 | D |
| 2026-04-13 | A v Lanus | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-04-06 | A v Argentinos Jrs | 2-3 | L |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.