Defensa y Justicia v Aldosivi Mar del Plata
Primera División - Argentina · Fri 24 Jul, 01:45 UK
Model probabilities
43% / 32% / 25%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.31 — 0.945
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Defensa y Justicia 26% · Aldosivi Mar del Plata 14% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defensa y Justicia | 43.3% | 2.01 | 1.91 | -5.1% |
| Draw | 31.5% | 3.31 | 3.20 | -3.4% |
| Aldosivi Mar del Plata | 25.2% | 4.98 | 4.75 | -4.5% |
Sharp reference (raw): 1.91 / 3.15 / 4.72 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Defensa y Justicia — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Defensa y JusticiaFair line (devig) — Defensa y Justicia
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Defensa y Justicia
LLLLLW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.17 / 1.58
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 | A v Gimnasia Mendoza | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-04-24 | H v Boca Juniors | 0-4 | L |
| 2026-04-18 | A v Independiente | 1-3 | L |
| 2026-04-13 | H v Talleres Cordoba | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-04-07 | A v Instituto | 0-2 | L |
Aldosivi Mar del Plata
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.