IF Elfsborg v IK Sirius
AS Sun 19 Jul, 15:30 UK · in 5d
Model probabilities
45% / 28% / 28%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.627 — 1.24
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): IF Elfsborg 31% · IK Sirius 18% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IF Elfsborg | 44.9% | 3.62 | 3.60 | -0.6% |
| Draw | 27.5% | 3.91 | 3.80 | -2.7% |
| IK Sirius | 27.7% | 2.14 | 2.02 | -5.5% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.67 · Under: 2.23 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 3.43 / 3.69 / 2.02 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · IF Elfsborg — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — IF ElfsborgFair line (devig) — IF Elfsborg
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
IF Elfsborg
L
Goals for/against (last 12): 0 / 1
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | A v Gais | 0-1 | L |
IK Sirius
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.