Ponte Preta v Goiás
BSB Sat 18 Jul, 20:00 UK · in 4d
Model probabilities
68% / 25% / 7%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.664 — 0.4
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-0
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Ponte Preta 43% · Goiás 3% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ponte Preta | 67.8% | 5.08 | 4.75 | -6.4% |
| Draw | 24.9% | 3.55 | 3.50 | -1.3% |
| Goiás | 7.3% | 1.92 | 1.85 | -3.6% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 2.25 · Under: 1.71 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 4.79 / 3.34 / 1.81 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Ponte Preta — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Ponte PretaFair line (devig) — Ponte Preta
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Ponte Preta
LLLWDL
Goals for/against (last 12): 0.83 / 1.58
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 8%
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 8%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-12-03 | A v Vasco | 1-2 | L |
| 2017-11-26 | H v Vitoria | 2-3 | L |
| 2017-11-20 | A v Fluminense | 0-2 | L |
| 2017-11-15 | H v Athletico-PR | 2-1 | W |
| 2017-11-12 | A v Coritiba | 1-1 | D |
Goiás
DWWLLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 0.83 / 1.08
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 33%
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 33%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | A v CRB | 2-2 | D |
| 2023-12-06 | H v América FC | 1-0 | W |
| 2023-12-06 | H v America MG | 1-0 | W |
| 2023-12-03 | A v Fortaleza EC | 0-1 | L |
| 2023-11-30 | A v Grêmio FBPA | 1-2 | L |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-09-16 | Goias v Ponte Preta | 1-2 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2015-06-14 | Ponte Preta v Goias | 0-0 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2013-11-13 | Goias v Ponte Preta | 2-0 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2013-08-18 | Ponte Preta v Goias | 0-1 | Brazil Serie A |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.