Cruz Azul v Puebla
Liga MX · Wed 22 Jul, 02:00 UK
Model probabilities
60% / 25% / 15%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.861 — 0.831
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · consensus)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Cruz Azul 42% · Puebla 8% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cruz Azul | 60.2% | 1.46 | 1.33 | -8.8% |
| Draw | 24.9% | 5.21 | 4.75 | -8.8% |
| Puebla | 14.9% | 8.20 | 7.50 | -8.5% |
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · Cruz Azul — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Cruz AzulFair line (devig) — Cruz Azul
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Cruz Azul
WDWDWW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.58 / 1.08
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 83% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 83% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | A v UNAM Pumas | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-22 | H v UNAM Pumas | 0-0 | D |
| 2026-05-17 | A v Guadalajara Chivas | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-14 | H v Guadalajara Chivas | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-05-10 | H v Atlas | 1-0 | W |
Puebla
LLLLDL
Goals for/against (last 12): 0.92 / 1.92
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | H v Queretaro | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-04-22 | A v Monterrey | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-04-19 | A v Guadalajara Chivas | 0-5 | L |
| 2026-04-11 | H v Club Leon | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-04-04 | H v Juarez | 1-1 | D |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-18 | Cruz Azul v Puebla | 1-0 | Mexico Liga MX |
| 2025-11-01 | Puebla v Cruz Azul | 0-3 | Mexico Liga MX |
| 2025-01-25 | Cruz Azul v Puebla | 1-1 | Mexico Liga MX |
| 2024-10-19 | Puebla v Cruz Azul | 1-2 | Mexico Liga MX |
| 2024-04-13 | Puebla v Cruz Azul | 0-1 | Mexico Liga MX |
| 2023-11-13 | Cruz Azul v Puebla | 1-2 | Mexico Liga MX |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.