Velez Sarsfield BA v Instituto de Córdoba
Primera División - Argentina · Fri 24 Jul, 23:00 UK
Model probabilities
43% / 32% / 25%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.31 — 0.945
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Velez Sarsfield BA 26% · Instituto de Córdoba 14% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Velez Sarsfield BA | 43.3% | 2.29 | 2.05 | -10.6% |
| Draw | 31.5% | 3.15 | 3.05 | -3.3% |
| Instituto de Córdoba | 25.2% | 4.07 | 4.10 | +0.9% |
Sharp reference (raw): 2.18 / 3.00 / 3.86 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Velez Sarsfield BA — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Velez Sarsfield BAFair line (devig) — Velez Sarsfield BA
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Velez Sarsfield BA
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Instituto de Córdoba
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.