Barnsley v Wigan Athletic
EFL Cup · Sat 8 Aug, 15:00 UK
Model probabilities
47% / 28% / 25%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.566 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Barnsley 30% · Wigan Athletic 15% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barnsley | 46.5% | 2.58 | 2.45 | -4.9% |
| Draw | 28.3% | 3.58 | 3.40 | -5.1% |
| Wigan Athletic | 25.2% | 3.00 | 3.05 | +1.6% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.91 · Under: 1.83 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.42 / 3.37 / 2.82 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Barnsley — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — BarnsleyFair line (devig) — Barnsley
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Barnsley
LLLLDL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.17 / 1.75
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 8%
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 8%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | A v York | 1-2 | L |
| 1998-05-10 | H v Man United | 0-2 | L |
| 1998-05-02 | A v Leicester | 0-1 | L |
| 1998-04-25 | H v Arsenal | 0-2 | L |
| 1998-04-18 | H v Tottenham | 1-1 | D |
Wigan Athletic
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.