Nashville SC v CF Montreal
MLS · Thu 23 Jul, 01:30 UK
Model probabilities
60% / 25% / 16%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.906 — 0.902
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · consensus)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Nashville SC 43% · CF Montreal 9% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC | 59.5% | 1.48 | 1.40 | -5.4% |
| Draw | 24.6% | 5.29 | 5.00 | -5.5% |
| CF Montreal | 16.0% | 7.41 | 7.00 | -5.5% |
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · Nashville SC — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Nashville SCFair line (devig) — Nashville SC
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Nashville SC
WWWDDW
Goals for/against (last 12): 2.25 / 0.83
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 42%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 42%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | H v New York City | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-18 | H v Los Angeles FC | 3-2 | W |
| 2026-05-14 | A v New England Revolution | 3-0 | W |
| 2026-05-10 | H v DC United | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-05-03 | A v Philadelphia Union | 0-0 | D |
CF Montreal
WDLDWL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.75 / 2
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | H v Vancouver FC | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-24 | A v DC United | 4-4 | D |
| 2026-05-16 | H v Chicago Fire | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-05-14 | H v Portland Timbers | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-05-09 | H v Orlando City | 2-0 | W |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-04 | CF Montreal v Nashville SC | 1-1 | USA MLS |
| 2025-03-23 | Nashville SC v CF Montreal | 3-0 | USA MLS |
| 2024-05-26 | CF Montreal v Nashville SC | 0-0 | USA MLS |
| 2024-05-05 | Nashville SC v CF Montreal | 4-1 | USA MLS |
| 2023-06-22 | CF Montreal v Nashville SC | 1-0 | USA MLS |
| 2023-03-12 | Nashville SC v CF Montreal | 2-0 | USA MLS |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.