Sarmiento de Junin v Argentinos Juniors
Primera División - Argentina · Thu 23 Jul, 23:30 UK
Model probabilities
43% / 32% / 25%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.31 — 0.945
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Sarmiento de Junin 26% · Argentinos Juniors 13% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarmiento de Junin | 43.3% | 4.61 | 4.20 | -8.9% |
| Draw | 31.5% | 3.12 | 3.00 | -3.7% |
| Argentinos Juniors | 25.2% | 2.16 | 2.05 | -5.3% |
Sharp reference (raw): 4.38 / 2.97 / 2.06 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Sarmiento de Junin — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Sarmiento de JuninFair line (devig) — Sarmiento de Junin
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Sarmiento de Junin
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Argentinos Juniors
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.