SJK Seinäjoki v KuPS Kuopio
VF Sat 18 Jul, 15:00 UK · in 4d
Model probabilities
43% / 26% / 31%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.756 — 1.478
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): SJK Seinäjoki 32% · KuPS Kuopio 22% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJK Seinäjoki | 42.9% | 3.29 | 3.25 | -1.2% |
| Draw | 25.8% | 4.12 | 3.80 | -7.7% |
| KuPS Kuopio | 31.3% | 2.21 | 2.10 | -4.9% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.63 · Under: 2.30 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 3.13 / 3.91 / 2.10 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · SJK Seinäjoki — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — SJK SeinäjokiFair line (devig) — SJK Seinäjoki
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
SJK Seinäjoki
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
KuPS Kuopio
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.